The GNASH season resumes tomorrow with a few teams practicing, as a briefer-than-normal Thanksgiving break - thanks to Centennial and Hendersonville having to play a makeup game on Monday night - comes to a close.
With two weeks left before the month-long Christmas/New Year's break, the focus turns sharply to Tier 2, where we're on the verge of determining which two teams will be playing in the Predators Conference for January play, and which three teams will fall into the Hine Conference.
By the end of Wednesday night's slate of games, one team could clinch a spot in the Predators Conference, and another team fall into the Hine Conference. We'll go through each's team scenarios by order of their current position in the standings, starting with:
Tennessee Outlaws
The Outlaws were pretty much a safe bet to get into the big show because they have so much depth. They've been at the top of Tier 2 since the season started, and with the exception of a couple of blips on the radar, both of which came against Pope John Paul II-Goodpasture, have been pretty solid and steady. The tier-leading Outlaws are up by four points over the second-place Knights (15-11), and could have themselves a spot in the Predators Conference before their game against Montgomery Bell next Saturday, which is being played ahead of schedule because of MBA having finals. The Outlaws needn't worry about JPII-Goodpasture, but rather, Mt. Juliet-Wilson Central, since there are, after all, two spots up for grabs, not one. The Outlaws have a five-point lead on the third-place Golden Bears, who play JPII-Goodpasture on Wednesday.
The Outlaws' four remaining games before Christmas are as follows:
Wednesday vs. Ensworth-FRA
Friday vs. JPII-Goodpasture
Saturday vs. MBA
December 12 vs. Hendersonville
For the Outlaws, the clinching scenario is simple: defeat Ensworth-FRA on Wednesday, with JPII-Goodpasture beating Mt. Juliet-Wilson Central in the game immediately preceding, and a spot in the Predators Conference is yours, and those games against MBA and Hendersonville become an early look at how you might do against Tier 1 competition. JPII-Goodpasture can beat Mt. Juliet-Wilson Central in either regulation or a shootout, because, even if the Golden Bears completely made up a six-point deficit to the Outlaws over their last three games, the Outlaws have beaten MJ-WC in both of the teams' meetings this season, so, Tennessee owns the head-to-head tiebreaker.
If Mt. Juliet-Wilson Central beats JPII-Goodpasture on Wednesday, then the Outlaws would have to win on Wednesday and Friday to snatch up a spot. I would post all the scenarios, but, I don't think there's any way the Outlaws are going to stumble now.
Pope John Paul II-Goodpasture
The reigning Blue Division State Tournament champions started the season 0-2-1 (a loss to Hendersonville on opening night, a stunning draw against the Outlaws, then a shocking beatdown from Blackman-Stewarts Creek on Halloween), but have since won five of their last six, the only blemish in this run being a 4-2 loss to MBA on November 12, and the biggest result being that vicious 6-1 spanking they gave the Outlaws (with one Russell Morris in the line-up, mind you) two nights later. Since those opening three games, the Knights have really gelled, and are back to playing the type of hockey we're used to seeing them play, a great occurrence after a difficult 2013-14 campaign, albeit with the happy ending. Unlike the Outlaws, who only have Mt. Juliet-Wilson Central to watch, the Knights have both MJ-WC and Ensworth-FRA looming behind them. The Knights are a point ahead of Mt. Juliet (11-10), and three ahead of Ensworth-FRA. The Knights' four remaining games are:
Wednesday vs. Mt. Juliet-Wilson Central
Friday vs. Tennessee Outlaws
December 10 vs. Independence-Summit
December 12 vs. Ensworth-FRA
The Knights can also have a spot in the Predators Conference secured by the end of the week, but, they're going to need some help to do so. First off, the Knights must win both of their games this week, against the Golden Bears and Outlaws, with Mt. Juliet-Wilson Central also losing to Franklin-Oakland on Friday night. They also need the Outlaws to defeat Ensworth-FRA on Wednesday. This entire scenarion occurring would give the Knights a five-point lead over both Mt. Juliet and Ensworth, allowing them clinch a Preds Conference berth at the end of the week. They can beat MJ-WC in regulation or a shootout and still be able to clinch on Friday, since they would then own the head-to-head against the Golden Bears. Otherwise, it looks like JPII-Goodpasture needs to win out (or, at least win three of their last four, with one of those three being against Mt. Juliet), because Mt. Juliet has three very winnable games remaining after Wednesday.
Mt. Juliet-Wilson Central
The reigning Hine Cup champs have a chance to abdicate their throne for greener pastures, but time is running out. They're sandwiched between a hot JPII-Goodpasture and a stumbling Ensworth-FRA, both of whom the Golden Bears have lost a game to. MJ-WC avenged that one loss to Ensworth a week ago last night, but, the Ice Tigers own the goal differential tiebreaker, outscoring the Bears 5-4 over both games. It seems, though, that the Knights are now the bigger concern. The Bears are without Kieran Ogle, now in Detroit, playing for the Belle Tire Selects, but have maintained the core that guided them to the Hine Cup last season, albeit having graduated Shaun Silk. The loss to Ensworth on November 5 stands out, because if that were reversed, Mt. Juliet would be a point ahead of JPII, but, you can't play with the past. The Golden Bears' final four games include a scheduling oddity:
Wednesday vs. Pope John Paul II-Goodpasture
Friday vs. Franklin-Oakland
December 10 & 12 vs. Station Camp-Beech
That's right - the Bears close their pre-Christmas slate with back-to-back showdowns with the Bison. As previously mentioned, the Bears' last three games are winnable, since their opponents have struggled, but beating JPII-Goodpasture in regulation would put them up by a point with three games left, going a long way towards getting that last spot. For Mt. Juliet, their scenario is simple but difficult: they need to win just one of their four remaining games (a win against JPII-Goodpasture must come in regulation, because a shootout win would give JPII the tiebreaker of number of points earned in head-to-head games, having already won the teams' first meeting), with JPII losing all of their remaining games in regulation, and Ensworth-FRA losing three of their last four in regulation.
Ensworth-FRA
The Ice Tigers started out by winning three of their first four, the lone loss coming to MBA on October 30. The trend has reversed, though, and they've now lost four of their last five, the only win in this run coming against Indy-Summit on November 14. Franklin-Oakland and Mt. Juliet-Wilson Central avenged losses to the Ice Tigers the week before Thanksgiving, and now, Ensworth's hopes of getting to the Preds Cup are slowly slipping away. They're seven points behind the Outlaws as of this moment, and, if that gap remains the same after Wednesday, their chances will suddenly take a big hit, because the gap to the Outlaws would be insurmountable, and they would find themselves locked in a three-way battle for the last spot. But the two teams immediately ahead should be their biggest concern. They pretty much need a collapse from both JPII-Goodpasture and Mt. Juliet-Wilson Central. Even worse news for Ensworth is the fact that their first post-Thanksgiving game is against...the Outlaws. Lose that game, with either side winning the JPII-Mt. Juliet game prior, and suddenly, the Ice Tigers need a ton of help. In fact, their remaining schedule is nail-biting:
Wednesday vs. Tennessee Outlaws
Friday vs. Blackman-Stewarts Creek
December 10 vs. Hume Fogg-Page
December 12 vs. Pope John Paul II-Goodpasture
The game against Hume Fogg-Page is pretty winnable, considering the tailspin the PatriKnights are currently in. The game against Blackman is harder to judge. But having to close out with JPII is just brutal. The odd thing is, it's the teams' only meeting pre-Christmas, and it happens to be the last night of play before the long break. The Ice Tigers are only three points behind JPII, but their task of getting that last spot is tall. If they lose to the Outlaws on Wednesday, Mt. Juliet beating JPII in the game before would be the lesser of two evils, because, they would still have a fighting chance. A four-point gap to the Bears is better than a five-point gap to the Knights. Forget about the Outlaws: Ensworth-FRA need to win three of their last four games, with JPII-Goodpasture losing three of their last four in regulation, and Mt. Juliet-Wilson Central losing two of their last four in regulation. It's a tall task, but this is GNASH, and crazier things have happened (Ravenwood-Brentwood winning the 2010 Hine Cup after having only won two games in the regular season, both of which came after Christmas, anyone?).
Franklin-Oakland
The Rebels were the #1 seed in the Hine Cup last year, but got forced out in two games. They finished their season as runners-up to JPII in the Blue Division Tournament. This season, a lack of pucks in the net have put Franklin-Oakland way behind the 8 ball, a shock when you consider how well Dylan Akers has played in net; taking over from Peter Yasso is no easy task. The Rebels have only two wins: against Hume Fogg-Page on November 7, and Ensworth-FRA on November 19. They have no draws, and no shootout losses, meaning, they have only four points. They sit seven points behind JPII-Goodpasture, and if JPII wins on Wednesday night against Mt. Juliet-Wilson Central, or even draws or loses in a shootout, Franklin-Oakland will find themselves in the Hine Conference. What's worse, as their last four games before Christmas show, they have to play a couple of Tier 1 squads; not great news for a struggling team:
Wednesday vs. Hume Fogg-Page
Friday vs. Mt. Juliet-Wilson Central
December 10 vs. Hendersonville
December 12 vs. MBA
The Rebels truly control their own destiny. The game against Hume Fogg is winnable, but they have only one game against the three teams immediately in front of them in Tier 2. Franklin have to tiptoe through a minefield to reach their goal; I'm sorry to say, I don't think they'll make it. They need a complete and total collapse from the three teams in front of them. They need to win out, with JPII, Mt. Juliet, and Ensworth losing every single game they have left. That's how tall their task is. I don't think they can beat Hendersonville; I think it's too late for them to make up ground.
These last two weeks are going to be a lot of fun to watch. Getting to the Preds Cup out of Tier 2 is as simple as following the Al Davis philosophy: "Just win, baby!"
Finally, a fond farewell to Kevin Whitmire, whom, tomorrow, will move back to his native Texas to start a new job on Monday. His wife and two children will join him after the school year wraps up in Maury County. They've also recently announced that they are expecting their third child. Kevin has been more than vital in helping MTSN get to where it is now. He joined us in September 2009, and has really helped get our GNASH coverage out there. He stepped away in 2011 to take up contract work with KBR in Iraq. He returned in December 2012, and got right back into GNASH coverage. His most recent broadcast with us was the UT-Vandy game at Bridgestone Arena back on March 30. Kevin's most recent broadcasting assignment was the State Wars roller hockey tournament in Fort Wayne, Indiana, back in late July and early August. In addition to GNASH, Kevin also did play-by-play for football and baseball on occasion, and helped me and Craig Jolly call races at Thunderhill Raceway in Summertown. He's a great businessman, and when we had the chance to get GNASH coverage on WAKM last season, he made a big push. He fell short (though, that's more down to the businesses not realizing the benefits of advertising with us, than him), but I'll always appreciate the effort. Kevin: Thanks, and good luck. We're gonna miss you.
GNASH coverage resumes Monday evening with Hendersonville taking on Ravenwood. The schedule for the last two weeks leading up to Christmas is up at MTSNOnline.com.
-Michael Hackney
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
No comments:
Post a Comment